1981 AMC 12 Problem 26

Attempt Problem 26 of the 1981 AMC 12 below, then check your answer against the professionally curated solution from LIVE by Po-Shen Loh. You can also try the full timed exam, view all 1981 AMC 12 solutions, or check the answer key.

All problems are used with official legal permission of the Mathematical Association of America (MAA).

26.

Alice, Bob, and Carol repeatedly take turns tossing a die. Alice begins; Bob always follows Alice; Carol always follows Bob; and Alice always follows Carol. Find the probability that Carol will be the first one to toss a six. (The probability of obtaining a six on any toss is 16,\frac16, independent of the outcome of any other toss.)
13\frac13
29\frac29
518\frac5{18}
2591\frac{25}{91}
3691\frac{36}{91}
Answer: D
Concepts:dice (probability)geometric distributionindependent events
Small hint:
For Carol to win in a given round, Alice and Bob must fail before Carol succeeds
Big hint:
If all three fail, the process restarts with the same probabilities
Solution:
Carol wins in the first round with probability (56)2(16)=25216.(\frac{5}{6})^2(\frac{1}{6})=\frac{25}{216}. A complete round with no six has probability (56)3=125216.(\frac{5}{6})^3=\frac{125}{216}. Therefore the desired geometric series is 252161−125216=2591. \frac{\frac{25}{216}}{1-\frac{125}{216}} =\frac{25}{91}.
Therefore, the correct answer is D.
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