1981 AMC 12 第 26 题

先试着解答 1981 AMC 12 第 26 题,然后核对你的答案与精心整理的解答,解答来自 LIVE by Po-Shen Loh。你也可以参加完整限时模拟考试、查看全部 1981 AMC 12 解答,或核对答案。

所有题目均经美国数学协会(MAA)官方合法授权使用。

26.

爱丽丝、鲍勃和卡萝尔轮流反复掷一个骰子。爱丽丝先掷;爱丽丝之后总是轮到鲍勃;鲍勃之后总是轮到卡萝尔;卡萝尔之后总是轮到爱丽丝。求卡萝尔第一个掷出六点的概率。(每次掷出六点的概率为 16\frac16,且与其他任何一次投掷的结果相互独立。)
Alice, Bob, and Carol repeatedly take turns tossing a die. Alice begins; Bob always follows Alice; Carol always follows Bob; and Alice always follows Carol. Find the probability that Carol will be the first one to toss a six. (The probability of obtaining a six on any toss is 16,\frac16, independent of the outcome of any other toss.)
13\frac13
29\frac29
518\frac5{18}
2591\frac{25}{91}
3691\frac{36}{91}
答案:D
知识点:骰子(概率)几何分布独立事件
小提示:
要让卡萝尔在某一轮获胜,爱丽丝和鲍勃必须先失败,然后卡萝尔成功
For Carol to win in a given round, Alice and Bob must fail before Carol succeeds
大提示:
如果三人都失败,则过程以相同的概率重新开始
If all three fail, the process restarts with the same probabilities
解答:
卡萝尔在第一轮获胜的概率为 (56)2(16)=25216(\frac{5}{6})^2(\frac{1}{6})=\frac{25}{216}。完整一轮都没有出现六点的概率为 (56)3=125216(\frac{5}{6})^3=\frac{125}{216}。因此所求的等比级数为 252161−125216=2591。 \frac{\frac{25}{216}}{1-\frac{125}{216}} =\frac{25}{91}\text{。}
所以正确答案是 D。
Carol wins in the first round with probability (56)2(16)=25216.(\frac{5}{6})^2(\frac{1}{6})=\frac{25}{216}. A complete round with no six has probability (56)3=125216.(\frac{5}{6})^3=\frac{125}{216}. Therefore the desired geometric series is 252161−125216=2591. \frac{\frac{25}{216}}{1-\frac{125}{216}} =\frac{25}{91}.
Therefore, the correct answer is D.
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